This post is a reference for quitting as a decision-making tool. The book Quit by Annie Duke is a great resource on this.
The rational basis for quitting is: the sooner you figure out that something is not working, the sooner you can switch to something better. ‘Fail fast’ is a useful mantra.
External factors will always influence our decision-journey and quitting is the tool that allows us to react to new information (such as luck) that is revealed on that journey. It gives us the flexibility to react to the changing landscape and new knowledge we have obtained.
It also offers a helpful rational antidote to a culture that worships the ‘grind’ - at the end of the day what good is ‘grit’ when it makes you stick to something not worthwhile? Quitting a course of action is sometimes the best way to win in the long run.
Quitting is very hard1 without practical strategies. Two techniques:
Monkey and Pedastal: At Google’s X Lab, they use the “monkey and pedestal” model as a way to determine what matters most.2 Imagine you’re trying to teach a monkey to juggle flaming torches while standing on a pedestal. The real challenge is training the monkey, not building the pedestal. Many people start with the easy part (the pedestal) to feel like they’re making progress3, but the real test is whether the monkey can juggle. If the hard part isn’t possible, the rest doesn’t matter. If the hard part fails, you can quit early and move on to something more valuable.
Kill Criteria: Set "kill criteria" before starting a project. These are pre-defined signals that tell you when to stop. They include a state (what needs to happen) and a date (by when). For example: “If X hasn’t happened by Y, I’ll quit.” This avoids sunk-cost bias and encourages rational decisions focusing on the current situation and what happens next.
Some useful heuristics: (1) quitting perfectly on time will often feel too early in the moment (especially when you’re in the losses); and (2) if it’s a really tough to decide when to quit or continue, then quitting is often best.
Expert investors outperform buying decisions and underperform selling decisions.
Humans are not solely rational creatures so I wonder about the extent to which a certain level of ‘false progress’ (i.e. motivation) is required or optimal.